Does it Pay to Wait for Interest Rates to Drop?

I was up skiing recently and while in the gondola the topic of real estate came up.
One of the fellow riders asked me if he felt we were at the peak of the market.
The peak!?
Dude we’re only halfway up the mountain.

I love analogies and insert them wherever I can, maybe to make things relatable? I dunno, in any case I’m good at them. Maybe it’s my love language.

I asked him if he happened to see the lineups at Whistler the day after our first decent snowfall.

Here’s the analogy:

The cost of a day on the hill has gone up.
There’s been a limited supply of snow.
The demand has gone nowhere except to the sidelines whilst waiting for snow.

The real estate market is exactly the same.
(Can I get a high five for such a spot on similitude ;)

It’s so interesting to me that during the pandemic people were fearless when it came to acquiring real estate.
Afraid to stand within 6 feet of each other, but not at all concerned above diving head first into what we would assume to be very uncertain times.

Yet now when there’s much less competition and prices have softened (well, stopped accelerating) we all sit back and wait.
And for what!?

Clearly the rise in rates has thrown a wet blanket over the ambition to buy real estate, and that has also significantly affected the supply of homes as people don’t want to lose their current low rate by shifting homes.

However, the flip side is that currently prices have stabilized, competition is less, and the opportunity for due diligence (which I feel very strongly about) is available.

Now that rates are expected to come down, what do you think is going to happen?

And is it worth waiting for a lower rate?

Let’s take a look at some numbers:

I’ll use the following examples based on a 5 year fixed mortgage with 20% down amortized over 25 years.